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http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gsp/
They are not always right of course but at least they frequently update their forecasts and you can look at radar, sat images and forecast maps to get a pretty good idea what is going to happen.
Also from NOAA, one of my favorites is the Quantitative Precipitation Forecast:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
TV weathermen are generally least reliable IMHO, although there are a few exceptions. It's almost always a crapshoot until the H2O is in the rain gauge.
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