Looks like about .5 inch of rain is falling on the Moose River plains.  Here's my best guess how it will impact levels for the Moose Fest weekend:

As of Thursday morning, the McKeever gauge was reading 2.3'.  A half inch of rain this time of the year (now that trees aren't sucking all the moisture) should generate a slow upward trend on the gauge through the day on Friday.  I'd guess that by the time most people are drinking beer at Slickers Tavern in Old Forge on Friday night, the river will be up to around 2.7'.

Then, by early Saturday morning, the additional water from the Fulton Chain drawdown should reach the gauge.  If the river is already at 2.7'--that should push flows into the 3.2' to 3.5' range.

Which is pretty much an optimal level for Moose Fest weekend.

Of course--all of this conjecture is based on my reading of the precipitation maps.  It's a little tough to chart exactly where the rain is falling.  If more than a .5 inch hit the plains--it could be a little higher.  If the plains didn't get quite that much rain--it might be a little lower.  But either way--it should be all good for a great weekend in the Adirondacks.